Variance Learning
Kaison's system for calibrating estimates based on your actual deal history.
Variance learning replaces generic P90 buffers with YOUR actual track record. After you complete a deal and file a retrospective (estimates vs actuals), Kaison calculates how far off you were. Over time (minimum 3 retrospectives), the system builds a personal variance profile: if you consistently underestimate rehab by 20%, your P90 buffer adjusts from the default 15% to 25%+. If you're disciplined and come in under budget, buffers tighten, surfacing deals that conservative defaults would have rejected.
File retrospectives at /retrospectives after each completed deal. The variance profile dashboard shows your calibration over time. The more data you feed it, the smarter your analyses become.
This is the feature that makes Kaison worth the subscription long-term. Spreadsheets use the same static assumptions forever. Kaison learns from your actual results. File every retrospective, even on bad deals — especially on bad deals. That's where the learning happens.
Educational content only. Consult a CPA or attorney for advice specific to your situation.