P90 (90th Percentile Adverse Scenario)
A pessimistic estimate: what happens if things go 90th-percentile wrong.
P90 modeling asks: 'If I ran this deal 100 times, what would the 90th worst outcome look like?' It's not the absolute worst case — that's P99 and it's usually unrealistic. P90 captures realistic adversity: the contractor takes 30% longer, rehab runs 15% over budget, rent comes in 5% below market. If a deal still works at P90, you can sleep at night.
P90 Rehab = Target × 1.15 P90 Timeline = Target × 1.30 P90 Rent = Target × 0.95 P90 ARV = Target × 0.97
Every Kaison analysis runs the full pipeline twice: once at target values and once at P90. The comparison table shows both side by side. P90 Resilience is 15% of the deal score — deals that collapse under adversity get penalized.
Your target analysis shows 12% CoC return. P90 shows 4% CoC return. The deal technically works but has very little margin for error. Kaison scores P90 Resilience low and might push the deal from GO to MARGINAL.
If your P90 scenario is NO_GO but your target is GO, the deal is fragile. Ask yourself: is every one of your estimates on the optimistic side? If yes, the P90 is probably closer to reality than your target.
Educational content only. Consult a CPA or attorney for advice specific to your situation.