P90 Stress Test
Adverse scenario: 90th percentile timeline + cost overruns based on your confidence level.
P90 buffers the rehab timeline, marketing timeline, and contingency based on your scope and ARV confidence. High confidence: +15% timeline, 12% contingency. Medium: +30%/18%. Low: +50%/25%. The result is what happens when things go meaningfully wrong but not catastrophically.
P90 = Target × confidence_buffer (1.15 / 1.30 / 1.50)
Shown in the Target vs P90 table. If P90 flips your deal from GO to NO_GO, proceed with caution.
60-day rehab at medium confidence → P90 = 60 × 1.30 = 78 days
If your deal only works at target but fails at P90, you are one bad month away from trouble.
Timeline Risk Score Component
0-15 points based on how much the P90 scenario erodes your returns.
ARV Confidence Score Component
0-20 points based on comp quality — high confidence + tight spread = full score.
Acquisition Channel
The source of a deal — Wholesale, MLS, Off-Market, Auction, or Network.
Educational content only. Consult a CPA or attorney for advice specific to your situation.