After Repair Value (ARV)
What a property will be worth after renovations are complete.
The ARV is the estimated market value of a property once all planned repairs and improvements are finished. It's the single most important number in a deal analysis because everything flows from it: your equity position, your refinance amount, your profit on a flip, and your risk exposure. Getting the ARV wrong by even 5% can turn a good deal into a loss.
ARV = Comparable sales price (adjusted for property differences)
Kaison uses your ARV input in every analysis. The engine applies a -3% P90 buffer to account for appraisal risk. If your ARV is overly optimistic, the P90 scenario will catch it.
You find a 3BR/2BA in a neighborhood where similar renovated homes sell for $200K-$220K. You set ARV at $210K. Kaison's P90 model tests the deal at $203,700 (-3%) to see if it still works with a conservative appraisal.
Never set ARV based on the highest comp. Use the MEDIAN of 3-5 recent sales within 0.5 miles. If you can't find 3 comps, your ARV confidence should be low — tell Kaison that via the confidence selector.
Educational content only. Consult a CPA or attorney for advice specific to your situation.